Associations of Antibiotics, Hormonal Therapies, Oral Contraceptives, and Long-Term NSAIDS With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Results From the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several medications have been suspected to contribute to the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study assessed the association between medication use and the risk of developing IBD using the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology cohort. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 133,137 individuals between the ages of 20 and 80 from 24 countries. Country-specific validated questionnaires documented baseline and follow-up medication use. Participants were followed up prospectively at least every 3 years. The main outcome was the development of IBD, including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Short-term (baseline but not follow-up use) and long-term use (baseline and subsequent follow-up use) were evaluated. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 11.0 years (interquartile range, 9.2-12.2 y), there were 571 incident IBD cases (143 CD and 428 UC). Incident IBD was associated significantly with baseline antibiotic (aOR, 2.81; 95% CI, 1.67-4.73; P = .0001) and hormonal medication use (aOR, 4.43; 95% CI, 1.78-11.01; P = .001). Among females, previous or current oral contraceptive use also was associated with IBD development (aOR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.70-2.77; P < .001). Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug users also were observed to have increased odds of IBD (aOR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.23-2.64; P = .002), which was driven by long-term use (aOR, 5.58; 95% CI, 2.26-13.80; P < .001). All significant results were consistent in direction for CD and UC with low heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics, hormonal medications, oral contraceptives, and long-term nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use were associated with increased odds of incident IBD after adjustment for covariates.

Metabolic, behavioural, and psychosocial risk factors and cardiovascular disease in women compared with men in 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: an analysis of the PURE study.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on the prevalence of risk factors and their associations with incident cardiovascular disease in women compared with men, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, we enrolled participants from the general population from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries and followed them up for approximately 10 years. We recorded information on participants' metabolic, behavioural, and psychosocial risk factors. For this analysis, we included participants aged 35-70 years at baseline without a history of cardiovascular disease, with at least one follow-up visit. The primary outcome was a composite of major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular disease deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). We report the prevalence of each risk factor in women and men, their hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with major cardiovascular disease. The PURE study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03225586. FINDINGS: In this analysis, we included 155 724 participants enrolled and followed-up between Jan 5, 2005, and Sept 13, 2021, (90 934 [58·4%] women and 64 790 [41·6%] men), with a median follow-up of 10·1 years (IQR 8·5-12·0). At study entry, the mean age of women was 49·8 years (SD 9·7) compared with 50·8 years (9·8) in men. As of data cutoff (Sept 13, 2021), 4280 major cardiovascular disease events had occurred in women (age-standardised incidence rate of 5·0 events [95% CI 4·9-5·2] per 1000 person-years) and 4911 in men (8·2 [8·0-8·4] per 1000 person-years). Compared with men, women presented with a more favourable cardiovascular risk profile, especially at younger ages. The HRs for metabolic risk factors were similar in women and men, except for non-HDL cholesterol, for which high non-HDL cholesterol was associated with an HR for major cardiovascular disease of 1·11 (95% CI 1·01-1·21) in women and 1·28 (1·19-1·39) in men, with a consistent pattern for higher risk among men than among women with other lipid markers. Symptoms of depression had a HR of 1·09 (0·98-1·21) in women and 1·42 (1·25-1·60) in men. By contrast, consumption of a diet with a PURE score of 4 or lower (score ranges from 0 to 8), was more strongly associated with major cardiovascular disease in women (1·17 [1·08-1·26]) than in men (1·07 [0·99-1·15]). The total PAFs associated with behavioural and psychosocial risk factors were greater in men (15·7%) than in women (8·4%) predominantly due to the larger contribution of smoking to PAFs in men (ie, 1·3% [95% CI 0·5-2·1] in women vs 10·7% [8·8-12·6] in men). INTERPRETATION: Lipid markers and depression are more strongly associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in men than in women, whereas diet is more strongly associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease in women than in men. The similar associations of other risk factors with cardiovascular disease in women and men emphasise the importance of a similar strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in men and women. FUNDING: Funding sources are listed at the end of the Article.

Medications for blood pressure, blood glucose, lipids, and anti-thrombotic medications: relationship with cardiovascular disease and death in adults from 21 high-, middle-, and low-income countries with an elevated body mass index.

AIMS: Elevated body mass index (BMI) is an important cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The population-level impact of pharmacologic strategies to mitigate the risk of CVD conferred by the metabolic consequences of an elevated BMI is not well described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted an analysis of 145 986 participants (mean age 50 years, 58% women) from 21 high-, middle-, and low-income countries in the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study who had no history of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, or stroke. We evaluated whether the hazards of CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular death) differed among those taking a cardiovascular medication (n = 29 174; including blood pressure-lowering, blood glucose-lowering, cholesterol-lowering, or anti-thrombotic medications) vs. those not taking a cardiovascular medication (n = 116 812) during 10.2 years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models with the community as a shared frailty were constructed by adjusting age, sex, education, geographic region, physical activity, tobacco, and alcohol use. We observed 7928 (5.4%) CVD events and 9863 (6.8%) deaths. Cardiovascular medication use was associated with different hazards of CVD (interaction P < 0.0001) and death (interaction P = 0.0020) as compared with no cardiovascular medication use. Among those not taking a cardiovascular medication, as compared with those with BMI 20 to <25 kg/m2, the hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (95% CI)] for CVD were, respectively, 1.14 (1.06-1.23); 1.45 (1.30-1.61); and 1.53 (1.28-1.82) among those with BMI 25 to <30 kg/m2; 30 to <35 kg/m2; and ≥35 kg/m2. However, among those taking a cardiovascular medication, the HR (95% CI) for CVD were, respectively, 0.79 (0.72-0.87); 0.90 (0.79-1.01); and 1.14 (0.98-1.33). Among those not taking a cardiovascular medication, the respective HR (95% CI) for death were 0.93 (0.87-1.00); 1.03 (0.93-1.15); and 1.44 (1.24-1.67) among those with BMI 25 to <30 kg/m2; 30 to <35 kg/m2; and ≥35 kg/m2. However, among those taking a cardiovascular medication, the respective HR (95% CI) for death were 0.77 (0.69-0.84); 0.88 (0.78-0.99); and 1.12 (0.96-1.30). Blood pressure-lowering medications accounted for the largest population attributable benefit of cardiovascular medications. CONCLUSION: To the extent that CVD risk among those with an elevated BMI is related to hypertension, diabetes, and an elevated thrombotic milieu, targeting these pathways pharmacologically may represent an important complementary means of reducing the CVD burden caused by an elevated BMI.

Personal and household PM2.5 and black carbon exposure measures and respiratory symptoms in 8 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Household air pollution (HAP) from cooking with solid fuels has been associated with adverse respiratory effects, but most studies use surveys of fuel use to define HAP exposure, rather than on actual air pollution exposure measurements. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between household and personal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) measures and respiratory symptoms. METHODS: As part of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology Air Pollution study, we analyzed 48-h household and personal PM2.5 and BC measurements for 870 individuals using different cooking fuels from 62 communities in 8 countries (Bangladesh, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe). Self-reported respiratory symptoms were collected after monitoring. Associations between PM2.5 and BC exposures and respiratory symptoms were examined using logistic regression models, controlling for individual, household, and community covariates. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) of household and personal PM2.5 was 73.5 (119.1) and 65.3 (91.5) µg/m3, and for household and personal BC was 3.4 (8.3) and 2.5 (4.9) x10-5 m-1, respectively. We observed associations between household PM2.5 and wheeze (OR: 1.25; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.46), cough (OR: 1.22; 95%CI: 1.06, 1.39), and sputum (OR: 1.26; 95%CI: 1.10, 1.44), as well as exposure to household BC and wheeze (OR: 1.20; 95%CI: 1.03, 1.39) and sputum (OR: 1.20; 95%CI: 1.05, 1.36), per IQR increase. We observed associations between personal PM2.5 and wheeze (OR: 1.23; 95%CI: 1.00, 1.50) and sputum (OR: 1.19; 95%CI: 1.00, 1.41). For household PM2.5 and BC, associations were generally stronger for females compared to males. Models using an indicator variable of solid versus clean fuels resulted in larger OR estimates with less precision. CONCLUSIONS: We used measurements of household and personal air pollution for individuals using different cooking fuels and documented strong associations with respiratory symptoms.

Variations in risks from smoking between high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: an analysis of data from 179 000 participants from 63 countries.

BACKGROUND: Separate studies suggest that the risks from smoking might vary between high-income (HICs), middle-income (MICs), and low-income (LICs) countries, but this has not yet been systematically examined within a single study using standardised approaches. We examined the variations in risks from smoking across different country income groups and some of their potential reasons. METHODS: We analysed data from 134 909 participants from 21 countries followed up for a median of 11·3 years in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) cohort study; 9711 participants with myocardial infarction and 11 362 controls from 52 countries in the INTERHEART case-control study; and 11 580 participants with stroke and 11 331 controls from 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE case-control study. In PURE, all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular disease, cancers, respiratory diseases, and their composite were the primary outcomes for this analysis. Biochemical verification of urinary total nicotine equivalent was done in a substudy of 1000 participants in PURE. FINDINGS: In PURE, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the composite outcome in current smokers (vs never smokers) was higher in HICs (HR 1·87, 95% CI 1·65-2·12) than in MICs (1·41, 1·34-1·49) and LICs (1·35, 1·25-1·46; interaction p<0·0001). Similar patterns were observed for each component of the composite outcome in PURE, myocardial infarction in INTERHEART, and stroke in INTERSTROKE. The median levels of tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide displayed on the cigarette packs from PURE HICs were higher than those on the packs from MICs. In PURE, the proportion of never smokers reporting high second-hand smoke exposure (≥1 times/day) was 6·3% in HICs, 23·2% in MICs, and 14·0% in LICs. The adjusted geometric mean total nicotine equivalent was higher among current smokers in HICs (47·2 µM) than in MICs (31·1 µM) and LICs (25·2 µM; ANCOVA p<0·0001). By contrast, it was higher among never smokers in LICs (18·8 µM) and MICs (11·3 µM) than in HICs (5·0 µM; ANCOVA p=0·0001). INTERPRETATION: The variations in risks from smoking between country income groups are probably related to the higher exposure of tobacco-derived toxicants among smokers in HICs and higher rates of high second-hand smoke exposure among never smokers in MICs and LICs. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Variations in the association of height with mortality, cardiovascular disease and cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Final adult height is a useful proxy measure of childhood nutrition and disease burden. Tall stature has been previously associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality, decreased risk of major cardiovascular events and an increased risk of cancer. However, these associations have primarily been derived from people of European and East Asian backgrounds, and there are sparse data from other regions of the world. METHODS: The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 21 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years. Height was measured in a standardized manner, without shoes, to the nearest 0.1 cm. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years (interquartile range 8.3-12.0), we assessed the risk of all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events and cancer. RESULTS: A total of 154 610 participants, enrolled since January 2003, with known height and vital status, were included in this analysis. Follow-up event data until March 2021 were used; 11 487 (7.4%) participants died, whereas 9291 (6.0%) participants had a major cardiovascular event and 5873 (3.8%) participants had a new diagnosis of cancer. After adjustment, taller individuals had lower hazards of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) per 10-cm increase in height 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.96] and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00), whereas the hazard of cancer was higher in taller participants (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.28). The interaction p-values between height and country-income level for all three outcomes were <0.001, suggesting that the association with height varied by country-income level for these outcomes. In low-income countries, height was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.92) and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.93). There was no association of height with these outcomes in middle- and high-income countries. The respective HRs for cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries were 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.32), 1.12 (95% CI 1.04-1.22) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.14-1.26). CONCLUSIONS: Unlike high- and middle-income countries, tall stature has a strong inverse association with all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events in low-income countries. Improved childhood physical development and advances in population-wide cardiovascular treatments in high- and middle-income countries may contribute to this gap. From a life-course perspective, we hypothesize that optimizing maternal and child health in low-income countries may improve rates of premature mortality and cardiovascular events in these countries, at a population level.

Differences and agreement between two portable hand-held spirometers across diverse community-based populations in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.

INTRODUCTION: Portable spirometers are commonly used in longitudinal epidemiological studies to measure and track the forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC). During the course of the study, it may be necessary to replace spirometers with a different model. This raise questions regarding the comparability of measurements from different devices. We examined the correlation, mean differences and agreement between two different spirometers, across diverse populations and different participant characteristics. METHODS: From June 2015 to Jan 2018, a total of 4,603 adults were enrolled from 628 communities in 18 countries and 7 regions of the world. Each participant performed concurrent measurements from the MicroGP and EasyOne spirometer. Measurements were compared by the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman method. RESULTS: Approximately 65% of the participants achieved clinically acceptable quality measurements. Overall correlations between paired FEV1 (ICC 0.88 [95% CI 0.87, 0.88]) and FVC (ICC 0.84 [0.83, 0.85]) were high. Mean differences between paired FEV1 (-0.038 L [-0.053, -0.023]) and FVC (0.033 L [0.012, 0.054]) were small. The 95% limits of agreement were wide but unbiased (FEV1 984, -1060; FVC 1460, -1394). Similar findings were observed across regions. The source of variation between spirometers was mainly at the participant level. Older age, higher body mass index, tobacco smoking and known COPD/asthma did not adversely impact on the inter-device variability. Furthermore, there were small and acceptable mean differences between paired FEV1 and FVC z-scores using the Global Lung Initiative normative values, suggesting minimal impact on lung function interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter, diverse community-based cohort study, measurements from two portable spirometers provided good correlation, small and unbiased differences between measurements. These data support their interchangeable use across diverse populations to provide accurate trends in serial lung function measurements in epidemiological studies.

Psychosocial Risk Factors and Cardiovascular Disease and Death in a Population-Based Cohort From 21 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Stress may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most studies on stress and CVD have been conducted in high-income Western countries, but whether stress is associated with CVD in other settings has been less well studied. Objective: To investigate the association of a composite measure of psychosocial stress and the development of CVD events and mortality in a large prospective study involving populations from 21 high-, middle-, and low-income countries across 5 continents. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study used data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study, collected between January 2003 and March 2021. Participants included individuals aged 35 to 70 years living in 21 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Data were analyzed from April 8 to June 15, 2021. Exposures: All participants were assessed on a composite measure of psychosocial stress assessed at study entry using brief questionnaires concerning stress at work and home, major life events, and financial stress. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcomes of interest were stroke, major coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD, and all-cause mortality. Results: A total of 118 706 participants (mean [SD] age 50.4 [9.6] years; 69 842 [58.8%] women and 48 864 [41.2%] men) without prior CVD and with complete baseline and follow-up data were included. Of these, 8699 participants (7.3%) reported high stress, 21 797 participants (18.4%) reported moderate stress, 34 958 participants (29.4%) reported low stress, and 53 252 participants (44.8%) reported no stress. High stress, compared with no stress, was more likely with younger age (mean [SD] age, 48.9 [8.9] years vs 51.1 [9.8] years), abdominal obesity (2981 participants [34.3%] vs 10 599 participants [19.9%]), current smoking (2319 participants [26.7%] vs 10 477 participants [19.7%]) and former smoking (1571 participants [18.1%] vs 3978 participants [7.5%]), alcohol use (4222 participants [48.5%] vs 13 222 participants [24.8%]), and family history of CVD (5435 participants [62.5%] vs 20 255 participants [38.0%]). During a median (IQR) follow-up of 10.2 (8.6-11.9) years, a total of 7248 deaths occurred. During the course of follow-up, there were 5934 CVD events, 4107 CHD events, and 2880 stroke events. Compared with no stress and after adjustment for age, sex, education, marital status, location, abdominal obesity, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, and family history of CVD, as the level of stress increased, there were increases in risk of death (low stress: hazard ratio [HR], 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.16]; high stress: 1.17 [95% CI, 1.06-1.29]) and CHD (low stress: HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.01-1.18]; high stress: HR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08-1.42]). High stress, but not low or moderate stress, was associated with CVD (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.08-1.37]) and stroke (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.09-1.56]) after adjustment. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that higher psychosocial stress, measured as a composite score of self-perceived stress, life events, and financial stress, was significantly associated with mortality as well as with CVD, CHD, and stroke events.

Barriers to Cancer Care in Northern Tanzania: Patient and Health-System Predictors for Delayed Presentation.

PURPOSE: Cancer is a growing problem in Africa, and delays in receiving timely cancer care often results in poorer outcomes. The purpose of this study was to identify the patient and health-system factors associated with delayed cancer care in adults living in the Northern Zone of Tanzania. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between July 2018 and July 2019, we surveyed adult patients presenting to an oncology clinic in Northern Tanzania. Delayed presentation was defined as 12 weeks or longer from initial symptoms to presentation for cancer care. Multivariate logistic regression and adjusted relative risk (aRR) were used to identify factors predicting delayed presentation. RESULTS: Among 244 adult patients with cancer who completed the survey, 78% (n = 191) had delayed presentation. Patient-related factors associated with delayed presentation included lower educational attainment (P = .03), increased travel time (P = .05), lack of cancer knowledge (P < .05), and fear of cancer and cancer treatments (P < .05) on multivariate analysis. On analysis of aRR, patients without private car and those with health insurance had higher risk of delayed presentation (aRR: 1.27; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.32 and aRR: 1.15; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.32). There was a strong association with increased number of visits before presentation at the cancer center and delayed presentation (P = .0009). CONCLUSION: Cancer awareness and prevention efforts targeting patients and community-level health care workers are key to reduce delays in cancer care in Northern Tanzania.

Association of ultra-processed food intake with risk of inflammatory bowel disease: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relation between intake of ultra-processed food and risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 21 low, middle, and high income countries across seven geographical regions (Europe and North America, South America, Africa, Middle East, south Asia, South East Asia, and China). PARTICIPANTS: 116 087 adults aged 35-70 years with at least one cycle of follow-up and complete baseline food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) data (country specific validated FFQs were used to document baseline dietary intake). Participants were followed prospectively at least every three years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was development of IBD, including Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis. Associations between ultra-processed food intake and risk of IBD were assessed using Cox proportional hazard multivariable models. Results are presented as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Participants were enrolled in the study between 2003 and 2016. During the median follow-up of 9.7 years (interquartile range 8.9-11.2 years), 467 participants developed incident IBD (90 with Crohn's disease and 377 with ulcerative colitis). After adjustment for potential confounding factors, higher intake of ultra-processed food was associated with a higher risk of incident IBD (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 2.72 for ≥5 servings/day and 1.67, 1.18 to 2.37 for 1-4 servings/day compared with <1 serving/day, P=0.006 for trend). Different subgroups of ultra-processed food, including soft drinks, refined sweetened foods, salty snacks, and processed meat, each were associated with higher hazard ratios for IBD. Results were consistent for Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis with low heterogeneity. Intakes of white meat, red meat, dairy, starch, and fruit, vegetables, and legumes were not associated with incident IBD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher intake of ultra-processed food was positively associated with risk of IBD. Further studies are needed to identify the contributory factors within ultra-processed foods. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03225586.

Impact of social isolation on mortality and morbidity in 20 high-income, middle-income and low-income countries in five continents.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between social isolation and mortality and incident diseases in middle-aged adults in urban and rural communities from high-income, middle-income and low-income countries. DESIGN: Population-based prospective observational study. SETTING: Urban and rural communities in 20 high income, middle income and low income. PARTICIPANTS: 119 894 community-dwelling middle-aged adults. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations of social isolation with mortality, cardiovascular death, non-cardiovascular death and incident diseases. RESULTS: Social isolation was more common in middle-income and high-income countries compared with low-income countries, in urban areas than rural areas, in older individuals and among women, those with less education and the unemployed. It was more frequent among smokers and those with a poorer diet. Social isolation was associated with greater risk of mortality (HR of 1.26, 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.36), incident stroke (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.40), cardiovascular disease (HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.25) and pneumonia (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.37), but not cancer. The associations between social isolation and mortality were observed in populations in high-income, middle-income and low-income countries (HR (95% CI): 1.69 (1.32 to 2.17), 1.27 (1.15 to 1.40) and 1.47 (1.25 to 1.73), respectively, interaction p=0.02). The HR associated with social isolation was greater in men than women and in younger than older individuals. Mediation analyses for the association between social isolation and mortality showed that unhealthy behaviours and comorbidities may account for about one-fifth of the association. CONCLUSION: Social isolation is associated with increased risk of mortality in countries at different economic levels. The increasing share of older people in populations in many countries argues for targeted strategies to mitigate its adverse effects.

Polypill with or without Aspirin in Persons without Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: A polypill comprising statins, multiple blood-pressure-lowering drugs, and aspirin has been proposed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Using a 2-by-2-by-2 factorial design, we randomly assigned participants without cardiovascular disease who had an elevated INTERHEART Risk Score to receive a polypill (containing 40 mg of simvastatin, 100 mg of atenolol, 25 mg of hydrochlorothiazide, and 10 mg of ramipril) or placebo daily, aspirin (75 mg) or placebo daily, and vitamin D or placebo monthly. We report here the outcomes for the polypill alone as compared with matching placebo, for aspirin alone as compared with matching placebo, and for the polypill plus aspirin as compared with double placebo. For the polypill-alone and polypill-plus-aspirin comparisons, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, resuscitated cardiac arrest, heart failure, or revascularization. For the aspirin comparison, the primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: A total of 5713 participants underwent randomization, and the mean follow-up was 4.6 years. The low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was lower by approximately 19 mg per deciliter and systolic blood pressure was lower by approximately 5.8 mm Hg with the polypill and with combination therapy than with placebo. The primary outcome for the polypill comparison occurred in 126 participants (4.4%) in the polypill group and in 157 (5.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 1.00). The primary outcome for the aspirin comparison occurred in 116 participants (4.1%) in the aspirin group and in 134 (4.7%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.67 to 1.10). The primary outcome for the polypill-plus-aspirin comparison occurred in 59 participants (4.1%) in the combined-treatment group and in 83 (5.8%) in the double-placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.97). The incidence of hypotension or dizziness was higher in groups that received the polypill than in their respective placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment with a polypill plus aspirin led to a lower incidence of cardiovascular events than did placebo among participants without cardiovascular disease who were at intermediate cardiovascular risk. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others; TIPS-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01646437.).

Deep learning-based image evaluation for cervical precancer screening with a smartphone targeting low resource settings - Engineering approach.

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer among women and still one of the major causes of women's death around the world. Early screening of high grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN), precursors to cervical cancer, is vital to efforts aimed at improving survival rate and eventually eliminating cervical cancer. Visual Inspection with Acetic acid (VIA) is an assessment method which can inspect the cervix and potentially detect lesions caused by human papillomavirus (HPV), which is a major cause of cervical cancer. VIA has the potential to be an effective screening method in low resource settings when triaged with HPV test, but it has the drawback that it depends on the subjective evaluation of health workers with varying levels of training. A new deep learning algorithm called Automated Visual Evaluation (AVE) for analyzing cervigram images has been recently reported that can automatically detect cervical precancer better than human experts. In this paper, we address the question of whether mobile phone-based cervical cancer screening is feasible. We consider the capabilities of two key components of a mobile phone platform for cervical cancer screening: (1) the core AVE algorithm and (2) an image quality algorithm. We consider both accuracy and speed in our assessment. We show that the core AVE algorithm, by refactoring to a new deep learning detection framework, can run in ~30 seconds on a low-end smartphone (i.e. Samsung J8), with equivalent accuracy. We developed an image quality algorithm that can localize the cervix and assess image quality in ~1 second on a low-end smartphone, achieving an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.95. Field validation of the mobile phone platform for cervical cancer screening is in progress.

Household and personal air pollution exposure measurements from 120 communities in eight countries: results from the PURE-AIR study.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 2·8 billion people are exposed to household air pollution from cooking with polluting fuels. Few monitoring studies have systematically measured health-damaging air pollutant (ie, fine particulate matter [PM2·5] and black carbon) concentrations from a wide range of cooking fuels across diverse populations. This multinational study aimed to assess the magnitude of kitchen concentrations and personal exposures to PM2·5 and black carbon in rural communities with a wide range of cooking environments. METHODS: As part of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiological (PURE) cohort, the PURE-AIR study was done in 120 rural communities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe). Data were collected from 2541 households and from 998 individuals (442 men and 556 women). Gravimetric (or filter-based) 48 h kitchen and personal PM2·5 measurements were collected. Light absorbance (10-5m-1) of the PM2·5 filters, a proxy for black carbon concentrations, was calculated via an image-based reflectance method. Surveys of household characteristics and cooking patterns were collected before and after the 48 h monitoring period. FINDINGS: Monitoring of household air pollution for the PURE-AIR study was done from June, 2017, to September, 2019. A mean PM2·5 kitchen concentration gradient emerged across primary cooking fuels: gas (45 µg/m3 [95% CI 43-48]), electricity (53 µg/m3 [47-60]), coal (68 µg/m3 [61-77]), charcoal (92 µg/m3 [58-146]), agricultural or crop waste (106 µg/m3 [91-125]), wood (109 µg/m3 [102-118]), animal dung (224 µg/m3 [197-254]), and shrubs or grass (276 µg/m3 [223-342]). Among households cooking primarily with wood, average PM2·5 concentrations varied ten-fold (range: 40-380 µg/m3). Fuel stacking was prevalent (981 [39%] of 2541 households); using wood as a primary cooking fuel with clean secondary cooking fuels (eg, gas) was associated with 50% lower PM2·5 and black carbon concentrations than using only wood as a primary cooking fuel. Similar average PM2·5 personal exposures between women (67 µg/m3 [95% CI 62-72]) and men (62 [58-67]) were observed. Nearly equivalent average personal exposure to kitchen exposure ratios were observed for PM2·5 (0·79 [95% 0·71-0·88] for men and 0·82 [0·74-0·91] for women) and black carbon (0·64 [0·45-0·92] for men and 0·68 [0·46-1·02] for women). INTERPRETATION: Using clean primary fuels substantially lowers kitchen PM2·5 concentrations. Importantly, average kitchen and personal PM2·5 measurements for all primary fuel types exceeded WHO's Interim Target-1 (35 µg/m3 annual average), highlighting the need for comprehensive pollution mitigation strategies. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes for Health Research, National Institutes of Health.

Adverse health impacts of cooking with kerosene: A multi-country analysis within the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology Study.

BACKGROUND: Kerosene, which was until recently considered a relatively clean household fuel, is still widely used in low- and middle-income countries for cooking and lighting. However, there is little data on its health effects. We examined cardiorespiratory effects and mortality in households using kerosene as their primary cooking fuel within the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. METHODS: We analyzed baseline and follow-up data on 31,490 individuals from 154 communities in China, India, South Africa, and Tanzania where there was at least 10% kerosene use for cooking at baseline. Baseline comorbidities and health outcomes during follow-up (median 9.4 years) were compared between households with kerosene versus clean (gas or electricity) or solid fuel (biomass and coal) use for cooking. Multi-level marginal regression models adjusted for individual, household, and community level covariates. RESULTS: Higher rates of prevalent respiratory symptoms (e.g. 34% [95% CI:15-57%] more dyspnea with usual activity, 44% [95% CI: 21-72%] more chronic cough or sputum) and lower lung function (differences in FEV1: -46.3 ml (95% CI: -80.5; -12.1) and FVC: -54.7 ml (95% CI: -93.6; -15.8)) were observed at baseline for kerosene compared to clean fuel users. The odds of hypertension was slightly elevated but no associations were observed for blood pressure. Prospectively, kerosene was associated with elevated risks of all-cause (HR: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.14-1.53)) and cardiovascular (HR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.00-1.80)) mortality, as well as major fatal and incident non-fatal cardiovascular (HR: 1.34 (95% CI: 1.08-1.66)) and respiratory (HR: 1.55 (95% CI: 0.98-2.43)) diseases, compared to clean fuel use. Further, compared to solid fuel users, those using kerosene had 20-47% higher risks for the above outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Kerosene use for cooking was associated with higher rates of baseline respiratory morbidity and increased risk of mortality and cardiorespiratory outcomes during follow-up when compared to either clean or solid fuels. Replacing kerosene with cleaner-burning fuels for cooking is recommended.

Ensemble Deep Learning for Cervix Image Selection toward Improving Reliability in Automated Cervical Precancer Screening.

Automated Visual Examination (AVE) is a deep learning algorithm that aims to improve the effectiveness of cervical precancer screening, particularly in low- and medium-resource regions. It was trained on data from a large longitudinal study conducted by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and has been shown to accurately identify cervices with early stages of cervical neoplasia for clinical evaluation and treatment. The algorithm processes images of the uterine cervix taken with a digital camera and alerts the user if the woman is a candidate for further evaluation. This requires that the algorithm be presented with images of the cervix, which is the object of interest, of acceptable quality, i.e., in sharp focus, with good illumination, without shadows or other occlusions, and showing the entire squamo-columnar transformation zone. Our prior work has addressed some of these constraints to help discard images that do not meet these criteria. In this work, we present a novel algorithm that determines that the image contains the cervix to a sufficient extent. Non-cervix or other inadequate images could lead to suboptimal or wrong results. Manual removal of such images is labor intensive and time-consuming, particularly in working with large retrospective collections acquired with inadequate quality control. In this work, we present a novel ensemble deep learning method to identify cervix images and non-cervix images in a smartphone-acquired cervical image dataset. The ensemble method combined the assessment of three deep learning architectures, RetinaNet, Deep SVDD, and a customized CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), each using a different strategy to arrive at its decision, i.e., object detection, one-class classification, and binary classification. We examined the performance of each individual architecture and an ensemble of all three architectures. An average accuracy and F-1 score of 91.6% and 0.890, respectively, were achieved on a separate test dataset consisting of more than 30,000 smartphone-captured images.

Smartphone-Enhanced Training, QA, Monitoring, and Evaluation of a Platform for Secondary Prevention of Cervical Cancer: Opportunities and Challenges to Implementation in Tanzania.

PURPOSE: Until human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical screening is more affordable and widely available, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) is recommended by the WHO for screening in lower-resource settings. Visual inspection will still be required to assess the cervix for women whose screening is positive for high-risk HPV. However, the quality of VIA can vary widely, and it is difficult to maintain a well-trained cadre of providers. We developed a smartphone-enhanced VIA platform (SEVIA) for real-time secure sharing of cervical images for remote supportive supervision, data monitoring, and evaluation. METHODS: We assessed programmatic outcomes so that findings could be translated into routine care in the Tanzania National Cervical Cancer Prevention Program. We compared VIA positivity rates (for HIV-positive and HIV-negative women) before and after implementation. We collected demographic, diagnostic, treatment, and loss-to-follow-up data. RESULTS: From July 2016 to June 2017, 10,545 women were screened using SEVIA at 24 health facilities across 5 regions of Tanzania. In the first 6 months of implementation, screening quality increased significantly from the baseline rate in the prior year, with a well-trained cadre of more than 50 health providers who "graduated" from the supportive-supervision training model. However, losses to follow-up for women referred for further evaluation or to a higher level of care were considerable. CONCLUSION: The SEVIA platform is a feasible, quality improvement, mobile health intervention that can be integrated into a national cervical screening program. Our model demonstrates potential for scalability. As HPV screening becomes more affordable, the platform can be used for visual assessment of the cervix to determine amenability for same-day ablative therapy and/or as a secondary triage step, if needed.

Association of Symptoms of Depression With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Depression is associated with incidence of and premature death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer in high-income countries, but it is not known whether this is true in low- and middle-income countries and in urban areas, where most people with depression now live. Objective: To identify any associations between depressive symptoms and incident CVD and all-cause mortality in countries at different levels of economic development and in urban and rural areas. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, population-based cohort study was conducted between January 2005 and June 2019 (median follow-up, 9.3 years) and included 370 urban and 314 rural communities from 21 economically diverse countries on 5 continents. Eligible participants aged 35 to 70 years were enrolled. Analysis began February 2018 and ended September 2019. Exposures: Four or more self-reported depressive symptoms from the Short-Form Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident CVD, all-cause mortality, and a combined measure of either incident CVD or all-cause mortality. Results: Of 145 862 participants, 61 235 (58%) were male and the mean (SD) age was 50.05 (9.7) years. Of those, 15 983 (11%) reported 4 or more depressive symptoms at baseline. Depression was associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.24), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11-1.25), the combined CVD/mortality outcome (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.11-1.24), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.10-1.37), and noncardiovascular death (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.31) in multivariable models. The risk of the combined outcome increased progressively with number of symptoms, being highest in those with 7 symptoms (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.12-1.37) and lowest with 1 symptom (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.92 -1.19; P for trend < .001). The associations between having 4 or more depressive symptoms and the combined outcome were similar in 7 different geographical regions and in countries at all economic levels but were stronger in urban (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.34) compared with rural (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19) communities (P for interaction = .001) and in men (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.13-1.38) compared with women (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06-1.23; P for interaction < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this large, population-based cohort study, adults with depressive symptoms were associated with having increased risk of incident CVD and mortality in economically diverse settings, especially in urban areas. Improving understanding and awareness of these physical health risks should be prioritized as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the burden of noncommunicable diseases worldwide.

Association of nut intake with risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 16 countries from 5 continents: analysis from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.

BACKGROUND: The association of nuts with cardiovascular disease and deaths has been investigated mostly in Europe, the USA, and East Asia, with few data available from other regions of the world or from low- and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of nuts with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is a large multinational prospective cohort study of adults aged 35-70 y from 16 low-, middle-, and high-income countries on 5 continents. Nut intake (tree nuts and ground nuts) was measured at the baseline visit, using country-specific validated FFQs. The primary outcome was a composite of mortality or major cardiovascular event [nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or heart failure]. RESULTS: We followed 124,329 participants (age = 50.7 y, SD = 10.2; 41.5% male) for a median of 9.5 y. We recorded 10,928 composite events [deaths (n = 8,662) or major cardiovascular events (n = 5,979)]. Higher nut intake (>120 g per wk compared with <30 g per mo) was associated with a lower risk of the primary composite outcome of mortality or major cardiovascular event [multivariate HR (mvHR): 0.88; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.96; P-trend = 0.0048]. Significant reductions in total (mvHR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.87; P-trend <0.0001), cardiovascular (mvHR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.92; P-trend = 0.048), and noncardiovascular mortality (mvHR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.96; P-trend = 0.0046) with a trend to reduced cancer mortality (mvHR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.00; P-trend = 0.081) were observed. No significant associations of nuts were seen with major CVD (mvHR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.02; P-trend = 0.14), stroke (mvHR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.14; P-trend = 0.76), or MI (mvHR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.04; P-trend = 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Higher nut intake was associated with lower mortality risk from both cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

The household economic burden of non-communicable diseases in 18 countries.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. In 2014, the United Nations committed to reducing premature mortality from NCDs, including by reducing the burden of healthcare costs. Since 2014, the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study has been collecting health expenditure data from households with NCDs in 18 countries. Methods: Using data from the PURE Study, we estimated risk of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment among households with at least one person with NCDs (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory diseases; n=17 435), with hypertension only (a leading risk factor for NCDs; n=11 831) or with neither (n=22 654) by country income group: high-income countries (Canada and Sweden), upper middle income countries (UMICs: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Turkey), lower middle income countries (LMICs: the Philippines, Colombia, India, Iran and the Occupied Palestinian Territory) and low-income countries (LICs: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Tanzania) and China. Results: The prevalence of catastrophic spending and impoverishment is highest among households with NCDs in LMICs and China. After adjusting for covariates that might drive health expenditure, the absolute risk of catastrophic spending is higher in households with NCDs compared with no NCDs in LMICs (risk difference=1.71%; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.67), UMICs (0.82%; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.27) and China (7.52%; 95% CI 5.88 to 9.16). A similar pattern is observed in UMICs and China for impoverishment. A high proportion of those with NCDs in LICs, especially women (38.7% compared with 12.6% in men), reported not taking medication due to costs. Conclusions: Our findings show that financial protection from healthcare costs for people with NCDs is inadequate, particularly in LMICs and China. While the burden of NCD care may appear greatest in LMICs and China, the burden in LICs may be masked by care foregone due to costs. The high proportion of women reporting foregone care due to cost may in part explain gender inequality in treatment of NCDs.